Apple, Caterpillar and Wynn Resorts are businesses that could be especially hurt if other countries or trade blocs retaliate. President Trump’s discussion on tariffs has the capacity to initiate a trade war. Surely there’ll be plenty of commotion, as is customary with Trump, and in our investigation, the likelihood of a trade war with dire consequences isn’t large. Nonetheless, it’s only prudent to take preventative actions. Let’s explore using a graph, I shall share the titles of 10 popular stocks which would be in danger if there’s a trade warfare. Read:Here is why the stock exchange is accepting the Trump tariffs so challenging (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-the-stock-market-took-the-trump-tariff-announcement-so-hard-2018-03-01) Chart Click here here (https://thearorareport.com/chart-stock-market-trump-trade-war-03022018) to your annotated chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Similar conclusions could be drawn from the graphs of Dow Jones Industrial Average , DJIA ETF (DIA) and
When should I start considering tapping my retirement resources and how should I go about doing this? The response to this question is dependent upon if you expect to retire. A set of meetings with a financial adviser might assist you in making important decisions like how your portfolio ought to be spent, once you’re able to afford to retire, and just how much you’ll have the ability to draw yearly for living expenses. Should you expect retiring before, or appreciating a longer working life, you might have to change your preparation threshold so. How much yearly income am I going to need? While studies suggest that a lot of men and women are very likely to need between 60 percent and 80 percent of the final operating year’s earnings to keep their lifestyle after
Those working in retirement as sole-proprietors or LLCs can deduct 20% of their business income but their full income will count against the Medicare PartB premium threshold. The new year provides a package of changes to federal income tax laws which go into effect. Here are the salient changes which impact financial planning and retirement. Unless you’ve been consumed in of the bowl games, you’re likely aware there are no longer $ 4,050 exemptions to your partner, you and your kids, although the deduction has approximately doubled to $ 24,000 for joint filers. There is a2,000 per child tax credit with a at $400k AGI, and the era deductions still apply. If you’ve been itemizing and live in a high tax state, property tax deduction and your joint state income is capped at $10,000. The
Trump Tax Plan – 8 Key Income Tax Provisions: 1) It eliminates personal exemptions which could result in families with many children paying higher taxes 2) It eliminates most itemized deductions such as moving expenses, alimony payments, etc. 3) It limits the deduction on mortgage interest to the first $750K of the loan and interest on home equity line of credits can no longer be deducted 4) Taxpayers can deduct up to $10K in state and local taxes. They must choose between property taxes, and income or sales taxes. 5) It expands the deduction for medical expenses 6) It repeals Obamacare tax on those without health insurance in 2019 7) it doubles the estate tax exemption from 11.2 million to 22.4 million and it keeps the alternative minimum tax but increases the exemption 8) it
Getting divorced checklist Managing the financial aspects of a divorce might be as dealing with the feelings as essential. Transactions and accounts that are financial Split all bank accounts balances as called for in the divorce arrangement Cancel concerted checking, savings and revolving credit accounts, including credit cards Establish personal accounts in your name for ATMs, checkingaccount, savings and credit cards Permit your utility businesses know if you are assuming responsibility for the invoices or if your title ought to be removed in the accounts. Be certain that you upgrade the account for heating , electrical, gas, sewer, water, cable/satellite tv, phone and Internet. Responsibilities for any co-op or condominium fees. Convert household programs to individual contracts, if appropriate Notify all your creditors of your varied conditions and duties, such as change of address if
2017 was a good year for the buy-and-hold investor where broad-based gains were captured across all major US & global equity markets. In addition, volatility hit historically low levels, which was a far step away from the past several years where investors have been bombarded with above-average volatility. As we enter 2018, practically all major US and global economic indicators are positive and no signs of recession exist in the near future. The good news is that the US & global economies are expanding, the bad news is that all this positive news is already priced into the markets. Therefore, 2018 will likely experience higher volatility than 2017 with one or two corrections possibly up to 15%. However, I do believe we will likely end the year higher in the US markets and especially emerging
US Dollar has been flatlined for 3 years and steadily declining throughout 2017. The House has currently passed their version of a reform bill and the Senate Finance Committee passed its bill on to the full Senate for a likely vote this week. Indications are that the Senate will pass its bill, triggering the reconciliation process between the two Houses of Congress. It is expected that this process will be difficult, but many experts believe a compromise bill will be passed during the first quarter of 2018. If so, this may thrust the US Dollar above its 12-month resistance and head higher. In addition, the passing the Tax Reform bill may also push small caps higher, especially if the US Dollar appreciates. Coincidentally, small-caps just broke above their 10-year rising resistance level,
Oil breaks out of three-year downward trend pushed to the top-ranked asset class for this within our proprietary timing model published at www.StrategicStockInvestor.com.
While leading economic indicators are strong… Commercial and Industrial Loans are lagging….. Over the past few decades, Fed Funds Rate has had a direct correlated with Commercial and Industrial Loans. For example, when loans are weak, the Fed Funds declined, which helped borrowers. However, this cycle we see loan declines with rates RISING with expected continued increases in the Fed Funds Rate (see below). Continued divergence in this critical area could be the weak link for a continued robust bull market.
Below is a chart showing the Fed’s Treasury holdings within its balance sheet. Almost 50% of the Treasury holdings matures between now and 2020, with 2018 the year with the most maturities. The way the fed handles their current assets will shape the financial markets now and for years to come. If they sell the Treasuries too quickly or prematurely, the bonds will crater along with an unexpected surge in rates. If they don’t sell the bonds, US debt will skyrocket at a faster pace. The Fed certainly has our attention. Simply put, they are screwed either way, its just a matter of when they want to be blamed for the problems they cause: now or later. Fed’s Balance Sheet: Notice as the bank assets rose, so did the stock market. Now that the Fed
We are similar in the spread cycle as 2004 – 2005. However, the current cycle has been manipulated due to Quantative Easing programs or central bank intervention that artificially distorted yield curve from 2008 – 2016, indicating this cycle may evolve differently from the past cycles.
Much has been made of President Trump’s expectation to implement his pro-growth agenda, which certainly contributed to the run-up in equities starting immediately after the election. However, recent market strength seems to result more from positive corporate earnings than anything else, which, on balance, is a more essential driver of equity returns. Furthermore, the Trump administration has yet to produce specifics about its tax goals while health care reform is taking much longer than anticipated. At the same time, ongoing investigations into the White House are, at a minimum, creating serious distractions. Investors still expect a tax bill, but the odds are diminishing of anything comprehensive being passed this year. Through the first quarter, U.S. companies grew at their fastest pace in nearly six years, extending the stock market rally that has stretched into its
The yield curve is showing rising short term rates, indidating a move to a risk-off sentiment where investors have reduced prospects for potential growth in equities. In addition, the High Yield Bond Spread is in consolidation, which is healthy, but it usually gets strained at these levels, especially since high yield bonds are trading at overly optimistic valuations. />
If you have ever visited an Emerging Market country, you may have two reactions: one of a struggling people with no hope and the other of a world of potential opportunities. Emerging Markets have had more than enough headwinds over the last few years, resulting from investor mentality to lean towards the “no hope” version of the EM world rather than the opportunities. The other primary debilitating factor was the increase of the US Dollar and rise of dollar-denominated loans to local currency bonds, which peaked from 2011 – 2014. Falling commodity prices and depreciating EM local currencies have also led to significantly underweight emerging market(EM) assets in international portfolios from retail to institutional investors. Yet, with commodity costs secure and EM currencies supported, EM should accordingly increase, and investors should reflect on whether or
US large caps ( 1.4%) and US small caps ( 1.1%) managed to bounce back from last week’s debacle of the Trump – Russian “collusion”. Europe (-0.3%) wasn’t so sanguine, as Trump’s visit to NATO was akin to a landlord showing up to collect overdue rent, even as the Manchester bombing threw uncertainty on its present defensive capacities. Latin America ( 1.3%) continued higher this week, followed by Asia Pacific ex-Japan ( 0.7%). Japanese large caps ( 0.2%) also eked out a gain. The US Dollar slowed its retreat ( 0.3%), helping to send commodity costs (-2.1%) and oil (-1.9%) lower. Q2 impetus has been away from US equities and into foreign equities, but US equities reached new highs this week — the Nasdaq and especially technology. The strength in Asia Pacific ex-Japan is related
Stocks have rallied since the election in a “reflation trade,” which can be broadly defined as an expectation of both higher inflation and stronger real economic growth. However, investors have recently started to doubt these themes with data on both fronts showing some weakness. First quarter GDP numbers this week could show growth below 1%, largely reflecting weaker consumer spending. In addition, following an oil-driven surge in CPI inflation to 2.8% year-over-year in February, March CPI inflation retreated to 2.4% year-over-year, well below expectations. Lower actual inflation numbers have also seeped into market expectations with the difference between 10-year nominal Treasury yields and 10-year TIPs falling from a post-election high of 2.07% to just 1.86%, as we show in this week’s chart. While a stalling-out in the oil price rally and cautious consumers are responsible
Housing: The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Sentiment fell to 68 in April from 71 the prior month. Despite the drop, builder’s sentiment remains close to cyclical highs. Housing Starts for March declined 6.8% to 1215k after an upwardly revised 5.0% increase the prior month. Despite the monthly decline, Housing Starts were 9.2% higher than a year ago. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Sentiment fell to 68 in April from 71 the prior month. Despite the drop, builder’s sentiment remains close to cyclical highs. Housing Starts for March declined 6.8% to 1215k after an upwardly revised 5.0% increase the prior month. Despite the monthly decline, Housing Starts were 9.2% higher than a year ago. Housing Starts for March declined 6.8% to 1215k after an upwardly revised 5.0% increase the prior
House prices, as measured by the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, rose 0.90% (MoM) for January and is now up 5.70% (YOY). All 20 cities in the index showed YoY gains. MBA Mortgage Applications fell 0.80% last week following a decrease of 2.7%% the week prior. The 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage contract dropped 13 bps to 4.33%, while the 15-year FRM contract fell 11 bps to 3.57%. Pending Home Sales in the U.S. jumped to 5.5% MoM for February, the largest since July 2010. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Economy grew at 2.1% in Q4, revised up from 1.9%.